jasonnolan11

Most of the movement in mortgage rates had been slow, steady, and generally unfriendly in recent weeks.  Today was a stark exception as rates surged significantly lower (relative to their recent range) following weaker-than-expected economic data. Weak economic data tends to help rates move lower, and this morning's reports were the most important of the week (Retail Sales and Consumer Prices).  The reaction to the data was swift because investors were waiting to see if it would confirm fears about the direction of rates earlier in the week.  Not only did the data fail to confirm the fears, it suggested a completely contrary move.  In other words, rates were forced to make a quick course correction.  They ended up moving right back in line with last Friday's levels for most lenders.  The entire week of anxiety was erased in a few short hours, with the average lender nearly an eighth of a percentage point lower on a conventional 30yr fixed quote....(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

It's been slow and steady, to be sure, but mortgage rates finally inched their way up to the highest levels in more than a month today, depending on the lender.  Some rate sheets were in line with April 9/10th levels while a few lenders were back in territory not seen since March 31st.  
Interestingly enough, the higher rates arrive amid modest improvement in bond markets.  Typically, bond market improvement results in lower mortgage rates, but in today's case, lenders were getting caught up with yesterday afternoon's weakness.  In other words, bonds lost ground yesterday and not every lender had the time or will to respond to the market movement in the form of mid-day rate sheet changes.  Instead, they waited until this morning to make the adjustment....(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Mortgage rates haven't necessarily moved higher every day recently.  For instance, yesterday's rates were unchanged versus last Friday's.  But the general trend has unquestionably been toward higher rates.  In fact, rates have only moved lower on 3 out of the past 15 business days.  
While that sort of losing streak sounds fairly unpleasant, the size of the movement has been far from threatening.  Over that same 15 business day time frame, the average effective rate has only moved up 0.11%.Translated to actual "note rates" (the rate applied to your loan balance, without adjusting for upfront finance charges), we're talking about top tier borrowers moving up from 4.0% to 4.125% on average.  ...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today.  This is actually quite an accomplishment if you ask the average bond market participant.  Mortgage rates are largely determined by bond market movement (specifically, that of Mortgage-Backed Securities or MBS).  In the bigger picture, bond markets weakened today.  Normally, that would push mortgage rates higher, but today the damage was largely contained in the Treasury sector.
There's only so much MBS can do to ignore the suggestion of Treasury momentum, however.  So if broader bond markets continue to weaken tomorrow, expect mortgage rates to head a bit higher.  ...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.